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PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2020 5:36 pm 
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mrscott wrote:


You are picking solely on THIS virus, there are MANY other pathogens out there that are just as contagious, and just as deadly... and the sad part is,,, you know that, but simply acknowledge this one only. My point is there are a thousand ways to die unexpectedly and to simply pick this one to cause a panic over is not right. Mumps can kill too ya know, and it's spread by the same means.

We here were never ordered to stay at home, nor was it even remotely necessary. And to spread a virus that nobody in our county has is pretty miraculous if you ask me. I have said it before and will reinforce the statement,,, we are isolated for the most part. Is there a chance of someone spreading it here? Sure there is!! But I also might get swallowed by a hippopotamus at the zoo too. You just can't live in fear of the "what if's",,, That is all I am saying. I do take whatever precautions necessary to ensure we don't needlessly and foolishly expose ourselves, but if I did get it, it would not be the end of the world, even if I died. Our area is not Phoenix or San Diego filled and crammed with hundreds of thousands of residents all scrambling around all over each other... sorry, we just don't live like that here.


:? I thought it was the other way around, it seems This virus is picking on the whole human race? While it is true there are several things that can kill you, there are usually underlying reasons for the disease, and most take years to finally kill the patient. While it is true a gun shot will kill you rather quickly, the chances of getting shot are less than contracting this virus. So if 80% of the people are living in fear, and you say the danger isn't great, does that mean you are the one that is out of touch with reality, my friend? So you are already resolved to your own mortality, and your fate is what it is. Isn't that sort of defeatist for a person not living in fear? Most Western thinking people don't accept fate, and try to use knowledge and science, so fates can be changed. I know you really don't like this but I will try once more.

Country, Deaths, Population In Millions, Deaths Per Million

Belgium, 8,761, 11.42, 767.02

Sweden, 3,313, 10.18, 325.34

U.S., 82,260, 327.17, 251.43

Germany, 7,738, 82.93, 93.31


Keep in mind this is the same disease, different approaches to handling the virus with different outcomes. One thing to keep in mind is testing can change the results dramatically, the more you do will tell you how as a nation you will do. For example Germany's Deaths Per Million if over 150% lower than the U.S., they do a much better job of testing, contact tracing and isolating infected citizens than we do. Our testing currently is so poor only 1.4 million cases have been confirmed, and our death toll could be much higher than admitted. If you assume that actually anywhere from 5 to 15% of the population has been infected then the death rate could reach into the millions on our current number of 251.43 per million, which could actually be higher. Where Sweden is now is where we a going, which means our rate per million could be as high as theirs or higher. Sweden currently has the highest rate of any country in Northern Europe. Mr.Scott it has been said that all who want a test can get one, can you get one, before you do your next gig?


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2020 6:40 am 
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:!: I know some hosts hate the fact that I'm comparing Sweden to the U.S. so I'm going to try and scale things to apples to apples. The State of Michigan is about the same size as Sweden land wise and population wise, about 10 million citizens. As we have seen Sweden's infection to death ratio is about 10%. One out of every Ten infected persons are dying. In Michigan we have over 48,000 people officially infected and the death rate is over 4,700, a little under 10%. This is because Michigan's Governor has been aggressive in combating the virus, and enforcing a lock down, even though there has been protests against her orders. What is not known due to poor testing is how many people in Michigan have been infected and not shown any signs. It is a different matter in Sweden there is testing and a public health option that covers all citizens, also paid sick leave, and other social safety net programs. When all of Sweden's citizens become infected then one tenth of their population could end up dying. They have not locked down like we have, when we lift the lock downs nation wide we can expect a spike in infections and deaths. We will be on a trajectory to also put at severe risk about 10% of our population or more. Currently we are a tick above 327 million people, we could have millions of deaths result in opening too soon and exposing the population to achieve herd immunity.

P.S. A very very dark winter indeed!


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:26 am 
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Paradigm Karaoke wrote:
19 of 20 need to be exposed to create herd immunity like with measles. the problem becomes, those who can not get the vaccine or the virus itself who are considered "high risk" and are the ones herd immunity is supposed to protect
1) those over 65 (16% of the US population)
2) those who are imuncompromised (4% of the US population)
3) those with chronic lung disease (6% of the US population)
4) those with diabetes (10.5% of the US population)
among others... but those alone equal 36.5% of the population, making herd immunity impossible without deliberately killing large swaths of the population.


While I agree with your whole overall point, this bit doesn't quite work on a math front. You can't just add up those percentages to equal that. It is possible to be over 65, imunocompromised due to diabetes. Or to have chronic lung disease and diabetes.

I don't have actual stats, and I won't wager a guess as to the actual totals and whatnot. Even if that dropped it to 20% of the population, that's still too high.


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2020 8:33 am 
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One question that I have that maybe someone can shed some light on is this,,, Why is there such disparity in percentages from region to region, state to state and even county to county?

If 1 out of 10 people in Michigan who are infected eventually die,, then why is it only about 1 out 100 are dying in Utah? Are the numbers being skewed somehow? Are they attributing almost any death these days to Covid19? even if it were not directly a result of the virus? You do know that for every case/death they "say" that is caused by the coronavirus, the feds give money/aid to those states. So, shouldn't the percentages be relatively close to each other regardless of location? I dunno, someone? Anyone? Bueller?


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2020 8:54 am 
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mrscott wrote:
One question that I have that maybe someone can shed some light on is this,,, Why is there such disparity in percentages from region to region, state to state and even county to county?

If 1 out of 10 people in Michigan who are infected eventually die,, then why is it only about 1 out 100 are dying in Utah? Are the numbers being skewed somehow? Are they attributing almost any death these days to Covid19? even if it were not directly a result of the virus? You do know that for every case/death they "say" that is caused by the coronavirus, the feds give money/aid to those states. So, shouldn't the percentages be relatively close to each other regardless of location? I dunno, someone? Anyone? Bueller?


OOOH! I KNOW THIS! Maybe. Sort of. It may not actually be the right answer. Caveat emptor.

If there is one thing I hate about information, it is that the majority of reports refuse to take nuance into consideration. I used to work with a guy whose motto was "men lie, women lie, numbers don't" but numbers lie as much as anything else given that it's men and women distributing them.

Michigan and Utah are two distinctly different places:

* Utah's median income is roughly $13k higher than Michigan's.
* Michigan has a much higher population density than Utah.

Those are two factors that don't get mentioned in many reports on the situation, but one speaks to the availability and quality of medical care, and the other speaks to the likelihood of transmission.

Kind of like how there's no one-size-fits-all rule of karaoke rotations and karaoke contests, it's tough to find a one-size-fits-all rule of handling a situation like the one we're in.


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2020 9:03 am 
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mrscott wrote:
One question that I have that maybe someone can shed some light on is this,,, Why is there such disparity in percentages from region to region, state to state and even county to county?

If 1 out of 10 people in Michigan who are infected eventually die,, then why is it only about 1 out 100 are dying in Utah? Are the numbers being skewed somehow? Are they attributing almost any death these days to Covid19? even if it were not directly a result of the virus? You do know that for every case/death they "say" that is caused by the coronavirus, the feds give money/aid to those states. So, shouldn't the percentages be relatively close to each other regardless of location? I dunno, someone? Anyone? Bueller?



:?: There are many factors that go into how severe the the infection and death rate are. Where you take extreme actions you can reduce the infection and death rate dramatically, say in China where they had a military style lock down of the country. You couldn't do that here. Even in Germany where their death rate is 150% per million less than ours they exercise great authority of the population, something that wouldn't happen here. Utah has not been near any of the hot spots, but still has infections, so it is not an island on to itself. In fact most models show the virus is moving into the heartland of rural America, the problem is the rural health infrastructure is ill equipped to deal with such a problem. This is due to cuts in Medicaid over the last 5 to 10 years. Who knows may be the people in Utah as a whole are in better shape physically, Mormons don't smoke or drink, even coffee or tea. Also as you are so fond of pointing out the people aren't as crowded together, that can have an effect also. Just because you have dodged the bullet so far, doesn't mean it will continue. The states of the Mid West were also not very active, until the virus made it to the meat packing plants. The two other places hard hit by the virus are prisons, and rest homes, any of those in your neck of the woods?

Like Dr. Fauci has pointed out this virus is humbling to everyone, since we are learning daily new things about it, and how sections of the society we thought had immunity like young children, really isn't so for every small child. Because the virus is so unpredictable it is better to err on the side of caution, and not blindly go out and catch it. One reason the death rate in Michigan is so high Mr.Scott is it hit the Black and Latino communities very hard. They have as a whole the lowest access to health care, and lack medical insurance, so they can't go to the doctor, or if they do so it is too late. One reason your death rate in Utah is less is because you have a small minority population, compared to other states.


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2020 9:09 am 
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NoShameKaraoke wrote:
mrscott wrote:
One question that I have that maybe someone can shed some light on is this,,, Why is there such disparity in percentages from region to region, state to state and even county to county?

If 1 out of 10 people in Michigan who are infected eventually die,, then why is it only about 1 out 100 are dying in Utah? Are the numbers being skewed somehow? Are they attributing almost any death these days to Covid19? even if it were not directly a result of the virus? You do know that for every case/death they "say" that is caused by the coronavirus, the feds give money/aid to those states. So, shouldn't the percentages be relatively close to each other regardless of location? I dunno, someone? Anyone? Bueller?


OOOH! I KNOW THIS! Maybe. Sort of. It may not actually be the right answer. Caveat emptor.

If there is one thing I hate about information, it is that the majority of reports refuse to take nuance into consideration. I used to work with a guy whose motto was "men lie, women lie, numbers don't" but numbers lie as much as anything else given that it's men and women distributing them.

Michigan and Utah are two distinctly different places:

* Utah's median income is roughly $13k higher than Michigan's.
* Michigan has a much higher population density than Utah.

Those are two factors that don't get mentioned in many reports on the situation, but one speaks to the availability and quality of medical care, and the other speaks to the likelihood of transmission.

Kind of like how there's no one-size-fits-all rule of karaoke rotations and karaoke contests, it's tough to find a one-size-fits-all rule of handling a situation like the one we're in.



:!: One thing about this virus we do know, it infects the high and the low, the rich and the poor, the red and the blue, the old and the young. Just because is hasn't hit your area, it is just a matter of time, since our population is not locked down, and can move freely from state to state. We are only in the very early stages of this, and the worst is yet to come this Fall and Winter during the regular flu season.


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2020 9:29 am 
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The Lone Ranger wrote:
NoShameKaraoke wrote:
mrscott wrote:
One question that I have that maybe someone can shed some light on is this,,, Why is there such disparity in percentages from region to region, state to state and even county to county?

If 1 out of 10 people in Michigan who are infected eventually die,, then why is it only about 1 out 100 are dying in Utah? Are the numbers being skewed somehow? Are they attributing almost any death these days to Covid19? even if it were not directly a result of the virus? You do know that for every case/death they "say" that is caused by the coronavirus, the feds give money/aid to those states. So, shouldn't the percentages be relatively close to each other regardless of location? I dunno, someone? Anyone? Bueller?


OOOH! I KNOW THIS! Maybe. Sort of. It may not actually be the right answer. Caveat emptor.

If there is one thing I hate about information, it is that the majority of reports refuse to take nuance into consideration. I used to work with a guy whose motto was "men lie, women lie, numbers don't" but numbers lie as much as anything else given that it's men and women distributing them.

Michigan and Utah are two distinctly different places:

* Utah's median income is roughly $13k higher than Michigan's.
* Michigan has a much higher population density than Utah.

Those are two factors that don't get mentioned in many reports on the situation, but one speaks to the availability and quality of medical care, and the other speaks to the likelihood of transmission.

Kind of like how there's no one-size-fits-all rule of karaoke rotations and karaoke contests, it's tough to find a one-size-fits-all rule of handling a situation like the one we're in.



:!: One thing about this virus we do know, it infects the high and the low, the rich and the poor, the red and the blue, the old and the young. Just because is hasn't hit your area, it is just a matter of time, since our population is not locked down, and can move freely from state to state. We are only in the very early stages of this, and the worst is yet to come this Fall and Winter during the regular flu season.


No, that is where you are wrong. It HAS hit Utah, just not in the large numbers of other states, even in the urban areas. It's just not as widespread as other urban states/areas. (Utah did the social distancing thing, and 2 of the counties did the stay at home orders, that was all, we didn't close up shop and roll over.) But it would stand to reason that for those who are infected, the death rates would be relatively the same all across the board. Like you said, it does not discriminate. It would not seem that population density would have anything to do with the percentage of those infected that eventually die. Maybe some of the disparity has to do with the level of care a person receives if they are infected. But those numbers would only show up for those who are hospitalized, it would not affect those who stay at home and self-care. Our numbers do indicate a higher percentage of those hospitalized actually do succumb to the virus (13.5%), compared to only 1.1% overall. Are some of the states attributing almost any death to Covid? even if they died from other things? Are some states embellishing the stats so they can go after the federal money while others are not? That is the question. Why the disparity? Neither of your responses really answered the question. (NoShame or Lone Ranger)


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2020 9:36 am 
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:!: Unfortunately Mr.Scott until the virus personally touches you it is happening to someone else. I'm sure since Boris Johnson was laid up with the virus his attitude about it, and it's deadly effects hit home more profoundly for him. Not only was he infected but his significant other who was carrying his child at the time. I hope that many will not have to wait until the virus effects them directly, to take the seriousness of the situation to heart. It has been said that anyone who has lived through a bad bout of the virus, has more respect for it.

P.S. By hitting you, I mean your state is still in the yellow color zone, when it goes to red then it is time to really lock everything down, and hope your health infrastructure is not overwhelmed.


Last edited by The Lone Ranger on Thu May 14, 2020 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2020 9:48 am 
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The Lone Ranger wrote:
:!: Unfortunately Mr.Scott until the virus personally touches you it is happening to someone else. I'm sure since Boris Johnson was laid up with the virus his attitude about it, and it's deadly effects hit home more profoundly for him. Not only was he infected but his significant other who was carrying his child at the time. I hope that many will not have to wait until the virus effects them directly, to take the seriousness of the situation to heart. It has been said that anyone who has lived through a bad bout of the virus, has more respect for it.

P.S. By hitting you I don't mean your state is in the yellow map color, when it goes to red then it is time to really lock everything down.


That still does not answer the question...maybe you don't have the answer, that is fine and acceptable.

I do have respect for it, and any other malady out there. I don't like to see people suffer needlessly, same as anyone else. There is really a lot we don't know yet, that much is for sure, and I really don't think the government is telling us the truth.


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2020 9:58 am 
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mrscott wrote:

That still does not answer the question...maybe you don't have the answer, that is fine and acceptable.

I do have respect for it, and any other malady out there. I don't like to see people suffer needlessly, same as anyone else. There is really a lot we don't know yet, that much is for sure, and I really don't think the government is telling us the truth.



:!: I would be surprised if I could give you the answer you seek. Dr. Fauci is a lot smarter than any of us, and he still is humbled by this pandemic. If a noted doctor finds understanding the problem difficult, what about the rest of us mere mortals? We don't like the answers he gives us, yet this is a close to the truth you are going to get, from those in charge. The reason being they don't understand the problem, and don't want to deal with it. All we can do is wait, but many don't want to wait, they want to go outside and risk infection. They want to get back to their jobs, they want their lives back, I understand their feelings. I'm home just like everyone else doing my part to keep others safe by not venturing out. I am lucky I can sit home if I choose to, not everyone has the option. It is a hard choice to have to decide is is more important to eat, than to stay healthy. Personally I don't think people should have to make that choice, and be forced back out unless things can be made safe, for everybody.


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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2020 12:31 am 
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mrscott wrote:
There is really a lot we don't know yet, that much is for sure, and I really don't think the government is telling us the truth.

Ya think? This is the most corrupt government I've ever seen in my life. Your president has done nothing but lie to the American people since day one. Fortunately, there are some smart folks out there that don't buy into his BS. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to make myself a Clorox Cocktail.

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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2020 4:52 am 
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Alan B wrote:
mrscott wrote:
There is really a lot we don't know yet, that much is for sure, and I really don't think the government is telling us the truth.

Ya think? This is the most corrupt government I've ever seen in my life. Your president has done nothing but lie to the American people since day one. Fortunately, there are some smart folks out there that don't buy into his BS. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to make myself a Clorox Cocktail.


The government hasn't been truthful to us for decades, including your precious Obama. That is an entirely other subject.

But it still doesn't answer any questions does it?


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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2020 6:06 am 
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mrscott wrote:

The government hasn't been truthful to us for decades, including your precious Obama. That is an entirely other subject.

But it still doesn't answer any questions does it?



:!: If you don't trust the government, then you can trust your own doctor, I would think? If you see the way doctors are conducting business now you will understand how serious they think the pandemic is. I was supposed to see the doctor in March, it had been on the calendar for months. My visit was cancelled, I had to phone in my doctor visit, since the risk was too great for me to go to the office, not only to myself but others. I think that should answer the question about how serious doctors view the pandemic.

MrScott you are once again going out, putting yourself on the front line, risking your life to play to a small crowd gathered at the local saloon. You have to ask yourself if the few coins you get for the job, is worth your life. I would hope you would place a higher value on it. Since we are all warriors according to the president, shouldn't you be getting combat pay?


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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2020 6:18 am 
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The Lone Ranger wrote:
mrscott wrote:

The government hasn't been truthful to us for decades, including your precious Obama. That is an entirely other subject.

But it still doesn't answer any questions does it?



:!: If you don't trust the government, then you can trust your own doctor, I would think? If you see the way doctors are conducting business now you will understand how serious they think the pandemic is. I was supposed to see the doctor in March, it had been on the calendar for months. My visit was cancelled, I had to phone in my doctor visit, since the risk was too great for me to go to the office, not only to myself but others. I think that should answer the question about how serious doctors view the pandemic.

MrScott you are once again going out, putting yourself on the front line, risking your life to play to a small crowd gathered at the local saloon. You have to ask yourself if the few coins you get for the job, is worth your life. I would hope you would place a higher value on it. Since we are all warriors according to the president, shouldn't you be getting combat pay?


Yes, I am going out. The front lines here are like a calm sunrise. The risk of stepping on a poisoned dandelion are pretty slim to none. Nobody has the gomboo here.


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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2020 6:33 am 
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mrscott wrote:



Yes, I am going out. The front lines here are like a calm sunrise. The risk of stepping on a poisoned dandelion are pretty slim to none. Nobody has the gomboo here.



:? I guess that answers my question, all I can say is good luck, and go with GOD.


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